Awhile ago, Time magazine featured the latest archeological finding of a fish-reptile fossil. It was concluded that millions of years ago there was only one known version of life—fish. And then it evolved. The limited vegetation in the water could be balanced with continental vegetation outside of it. The only obstacle for the fish was the lack of limbs. So with no delivery service back then the fish had to grow its own limbs.Fast forward to today.  News reports recently announced that terrorists are looking into private jets as a means to accomplish the next terrorist strike (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-04-21-private-jets-warning_x.htm?csp=34) .

Evolution is the thing that drives us to innovation and progression. It works in any aspect of our life. Surprisingly, or not so, it works for terrorism as well.When standard explosives became a hard to find material, evolution drove terrorists to utilize available resources and to improvise ‘under the sink’ ingredients into exploding ones. In places where terrorist groups could not acquire large-scale bombs, they evolved their methods by utilizing something that could cause the same impact, went fast through the air, contained large quantities of flammable material, and could be directed at a target—a commercial airliner.

Historically, we learn from mistakes and evolve accordingly. Hijacking commercial aircraft has become a difficult task due to reinforced cockpit doors, improved security measures, and the use of air marshals. Here, evolution has again potentially forced the hand of terrorists to consider private jets to in lieu of their larger cousins.Due to the nature of their use, private jets are easily accessible tools for aggressors. With limited (if any) security measures, and no obligation to report charter clients, private jets are soft targets, and the prices for even purchasing jets are reasonable. When dealing with state sponsored terrorism (reviewing the last weeks’ chilling news from Iran can shed some light on this issue) a few million dollars for purchasing or leasing a mid scale flying bomb would pose little problem for terrorists. Unfortunately, the above announcement was made just after a message in Arabic was pinpointed. But what if we never receive such intelligence in the future?If we close the door they will get through the window; if we’ll seal the southern border with Mexico they will find access through Canada.

How then can we know what evolutionary surprises await us? How can we know what the next step for the terrorists might be?  The answer is simple – by getting into their shoes.Getting into the terrorist mindset is the only way to predict their next moves. These moves can be categorized and measured, and subsequently deployed against them. As I wrote in “Red Teaming” article, the process of “wearing” the terrorist mindset can assist in predicting plausible scenarios and in evaluating the security measures we spend a fortune on…
Tomer Benito
Counter-Terrorism Specialist